The 2023 New York Mets sure were amazing, just not in the way we all expected. What was supposed to be a season of promise ended in chaos as the season saw the selling off of prized veterans for very good prospects and a manager and front office upheaval.
A 26 game regression in the win column will do that to a team.
But enter David Stearns as President of Baseball Operations, the wunderkind of the Milwaukee Brewers with a history with the Mets that only the Wilpons could have screwed up. It's hard to have a very optimistic view of the team here in January because there haven't been a bevy of flashy acquisitions or adjustments to the roster. Aside from the pitching staff, what you saw in 2023 is pretty much what you're going to get in 2024.
You have a new manager in Carlos Mendoza who comes across town after being the bench coach for the Yankees, but somehow pitching coach Jeremy Hefner remains. John Gibbons comes back to the organization as the new bench coach with Eric Chavez moving back to a focus on hitting, which may remedy a team batting average that nose-dived by 21 points.
Whatever strategy or plan there might have been for the pitching staff went out the window after closer Edwin Diaz's injury in the World Baseball Classic. David Robertson filled in nicely, but he was jettisoned off as soon the white flag was raised. Couple a scuttled back-end of the bullpen with a starting staff that failed to average more 5ish innings per start, and it's a recipe for disaster.
As far as hitting, last year was waylaid by RF Starling Marte not being 100% and then finally, mercifully being shut down. The 5-9 spots in the lineup were in constant flux and the one major criticism of former manager Buck Showalter was an absolute refusal to play the up and coming rookies on a regular basis. 3B Brett Baty was the exception, but C Francisco Alvarez's playing time was spotty and it seemed like every time he would start to get in a rhythm at the plate, he'd be given a day off. OF/1B Mark Vientos was up and down all season, but could not get regular time until the season was all but over. IF Ronny Mauricio staying down at AAA until September 1 was absolutely criminal.
2024 does project all that many changes. It looks as if Brandon Nimmo's days in CF will be reduced, if not ended, with the addition of Harrison Bader which would be an upgrade defensively, however not at the plate. My projection for Opening Day positions:
C- Alvarez
1B- Alonso
2B- McNeil
3B- Baty
SS- Lindor
LF- Nimmo
CF- Bader
RF- Marte
DH-Vientos
With Mauricio out for the year after an unfortunate winter league injury, McNeil will be entrenched at 2B for the year. The outfield could be a merry-go-round, which might be good to keep everyone fresh, but getting in a rhythm at the plate is something that was really lacking last year and hopefully the new regime will let players find themselves.
Oh, and we no longer have to wonder why Daniel Vogelbach is taking up a roster spot.
The question is whether this is a .230 hitting team like last year or a .250-.260 hitting team like 2 years ago?
Pitching projects many more questions. Diaz is Diaz and as long he's healthy, he should be dominant once again. Kodai Senga was nice last year, especially later in the year, but let's not forget he's already 30.
Luis Severino and Sean Manaea are underwhelming additions, The multi-year experiment that was Carlos Carrasco is over, thankfully. Adrian Houser comes over from Milwaukee, a lifetime sub-.500 pitcher with a career ERA of 4.00. You'll excuse me if I fail to see how Hefner helps this situation.
The bullpen aside from Diaz is chock full of your licorice assortment of mediocre arms that are a coin flip as to whether they'll be successful. Drew Smith has been solid is stretches, David Peterson figures to be a long relief/spot starter guy but he has been as consistent as public sentiment about the COVID vaccine.
If last year's Mets were a 75 win team, this year doesn't project much better than a .500 season and one more August of looking forward to the NFL.
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